All the indications from around the country indicate that the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has produced a victory for the NO campaign. All the working-class constituencies in Dublin and Cork, and constituencies all along the Western sea-board have produced majorities for the NO vote, usually 55%-60% for NO, against 45%-50% for YES. So far, only middle-class constituencies in Dublin and Kildare have a YES majority.

I started a new thread on this topic due to its significance, not only for Ireland but for Europe. Around 10 of the 27 member countries have ratified the Lisbon treaty so far, but none of them with a referendum, Ireland being the only country in the EU to hold one. But without Ireland's agreement the treaty cannot be ratified, as it needs a unanimous vote.

This result is probably unprecedented in Ireland: all the major political parties, almost all the trade unions and the employers' associations urged a YES vote on this issue, but were obviously rejected by the electorate. The Catholic Church remained largely neutral, as did, to the best of my knowledge, other religious groups.

In last week's poll by the Irish Times, which predicted a NO majority, the main reason given by the NO voters was that they did not understand the treaty. This reason was rejected, in somewhat arrogant tones, by the spokesmen for the proponents of the treaty, but they are now realizing that they got it wrong.

What next for Europe?

Don