To the political scientists who study historical patterns and trends, there is nothing more certain than Barack Obama's victory in November. . . . [To] the academics who specialize in studying the trends, charting the variables and monitoring the economic reports, . . there is no doubt about the winner in November. It's Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain in a knockout. . . . The keys are based on the thesis that elections turn on the performance of the party in control of the White House, in this case the Republicans. And they don't depend on the particularities of the campaign," Lichtman said.

Not once since 1860 has the party in control of the White House been able to survive if six of Lichtman's 13 keys have gone against it. Right now, seven are against McCain's party, with two others leaning against it.

Those keys measure incumbency, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign developments such as war, the charisma of the candidates, interparty contests, scandals and third-party challenges.

Lichtman said the two keys still uncertain involve whether the economy falls into recession during the year and whether Obama can be fairly called a particularly charismatic challenger."

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20080616-9999-1n16campaign.html