Tehran's Definite 'Maybe'
By David Ignatius
Thursday, July 10, 2008; Page A15

NEW YORK -- Even in midsummer, Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, wears the three-piece suit of a traditional diplomat. But faithful to the dress code of the Iranian revolution, he doesn't wear a necktie. That mix of symbols is a good snapshot of Iran's hard-and-soft foreign policy these days.

The Iranians are signaling that they want talks with the West -- and hinting that they are ready for a serious dialogue with the Great Satan in Washington. But while they discuss engagement, they remain wary of it. The Iranians are almost coquettish: They like being wooed, and they enjoy being the center of attention, but they aren't quite ready to say yes.

And even as they talk of diplomacy, the Iranians continue to brandish the weapons of war. The latest example was the test firing yesterday of a Shahab-3 missile, which with its 1,200-mile range is capable of hitting Israel. "Our hands are always on the trigger," said Revolutionary Guard Gen. Hossein Salami.

The mixed messages are especially evident on the nuclear issue, where Mottaki raised hopes last week that the Iranians might respond favorably to a new proposal for negotiations, then in his formal response didn't give a clear, yes-or-no answer. The United States and the other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council had proposed a "freeze-for-freeze" deal, in which Iran would agree not to expand its nuclear program in exchange for a freeze on additional U.N. sanctions, as a prelude to negotiations. But in a three-page letter to Javier Solana, the European Union's top diplomat, Mottaki offered only a noncommittal "generic response," according to one person who read the letter.

What course is Iran pursuing? The leaders themselves probably aren't sure. A lively debate is under way in Tehran, with hard-liners arguing that the West is weak and that Iran should refuse any compromises, and a more pragmatic faction contending that now is the time for Iran to come to the table and consolidate its gains.

This debate is surfacing in the Iranian press and in some statements by senior officials, according to an analysis by the "Persia House" group at the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton: They note "a widening rift between camps within the governing elite, as well as popular support for compromise."

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