The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #113349 Message #2410447
Posted By: Paul Burke
11-Aug-08 - 08:12 AM
Thread Name: BS: War in Georgia (2008)
Subject: RE: BS: War in Georgia
I'm surprised you've got this far in the discussion without mentioning Kosovo. Putin said at the time that the Kosovo independence referendum set a precedent. The obvious outcome is referenda in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which would almost certainly lead to them becoming Russian- controlled republiclets.
I suspect Saakashvili thought the Americans and Europeans would come running to help him. I can't see any other reason why a country with 4 million people would attack the stated interests of a country with 140 million.
The outcome will probably be his replacement by a Russian- friendly government, which will prove useful to Putin by keeping its hand on the tap on the pipeline. Which could have been avoided if the West hadn't sold the Russians a duff version of the market economy back in 1991, if they hadn't lorded it over them when they were struggling, if they had gone in with a serious reconstruction plan instead of attempting to loot the place, if they had condemned the excesses of Georgian nationalists against the Russian minority, and if they weren't so addicted to oil.