The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #113349 Message #2417423
Posted By: robomatic
18-Aug-08 - 10:50 PM
Thread Name: BS: War in Georgia (2008)
Subject: RE: BS: War in Georgia
I think it is pointless to argue whether or not the Ossetians are brave little defenders of their cultural identity or pawns of the big bear. It's obviously clearly both. The Ossetians make a handy 'bully boy' with which Russia can tweak the Georgian nose of the Western camel which has come into their tent of influence. The Russians are supporters of nationalities when it suits, and they are the crushers of nationalities as well. Check with the Chechens just north of this situation. The Soviet Union was a wholesale ethnic cleanser/relocator.
This is not sudden and it is not based purely on the events of the last ten days. It is an interesting combination of what appears to me to be clumsy moves by the Bush administration to extend NATO membership precipatetly and somewhat incomprehensibly. I personally don't see what Poland wants with American anti-missile missiles (particularly when they don't really work). I think the notion of countering ballistic missiles with missiles has not been turned in to a successful production weapon, it is warmed over Reagan-vision. And it definitely pisses off the Russians. It always has. Similarly, the Russian bait-and-smash of the Georgians is reminiscent of Cold War objectives and Cold War tactics.
It is overall a surrender to the old world view, (us and them)and it is creating deja vue to those of us who remember the good ol' days of Soviet Union, Warsaw Pact, and NATO.
Russia might profit immediately as 'tough guy on the block' but with a resurgent and united Europe I think it is not a good long term policy.
Clearly this has been a tonic to the McCain campaign, which is slanted toward the previous century (as was the 'W' administration). They're going to make all the hay they can over this. Obama is at risk either way he wants to argue: He can't look any more militant than McCain, so he will be branded as a 'me-too'. On the other hand, his ability to reason via the 'big picture', while very attractive in the primaries, leaves him open to a charge of looking weak by being reasonable.