As Volgadon pointed out, the real danger is Ukraine, where the government's support is paper- thin, as is their mandate. The "Orange Revolution" is seen by Russia as western interference, and indeed overthrew a president whose policy was to develop closer ties with Russia. Many of the Ukrainian population are of Russian origin - some areas well over 50%.

This would not matter, had the government not early on adopted a nationalist policy which could be interpreted as making Russians into second- class citizens. Ukraine is also very dependent on Russia for energy.

It's quite probable that the Russians will use economic pressure to split Ukraine, and declare a "protectorate" over the Eastern areas. The best way to counter this is to embark on a policy of economic development which will benefit all Ukrainians, including Russian speakers, and secure their energy supplies.

Can the west do this, in a recession, when Europe has become dependent on Russian gas?