Answer: yes.

Any election--especially this one, depends on turnout. At this point there are very few people, even in his own base, who are passionately for McCain. There are quite a few strongly for Obama.

What you want in an election is to get your supporters out, and dampen the support of your opposition.   With a solidly liberal ticket, this task is easier for Obama. McCain will not have his base ever solidly behind him--consider those who call him Juan McCain.

Yet, as I and others have noted, McCain cannot win with just Republicans. He must appeal to independents--and the stands which appeal to McCain's base--on immigration, taxes, health care, etc, are exactly the ones which turn off independents.

Many blue collar people may well not want to vote for Obama. But if they also are not enthusiastic enough about McCain to actually go out and vote, Obama wins--since the enthusiasm is lopsidedly on his side.

Also, consider 2004. How balanced was the Republican ticket that year? The fact that Bush was clearly with the "Religious Right" meant that this group provided Bush with the foot soldiers any campaign needs--to stuff envelopes, make phone calls, get people to the polls.   This year McCain is seen as waffling on many issues important to the "Religious Right".   The foot soldiers will be missing.

But not on Obama's side.

It looks like the shoe is on the other foot this year.