USGS Hydrological Data for Winfield KS gives apparently accurate information on the measured depth of the Walnut River at Winfield, updated about twice daily. At the present time (09-13-2008 15:30) the river depth is shown as 27.20 feet. This site gives good information on current conditions, but makes no predictions.

US Weather Service for Winfield KS shows the same measured information at "fuzzy" resolution, up to the dotted vertical "current time" line, with a predicted extrapolation for the next few days. The "actual value" is updated more frequently than the "prediction" so there frequently is some mismatch – a break at the current time – between actual and predicted. They erase the "predictions before now" information so you won't notice how accurately(?) they predicted what has happened in the recent past. Since this site is maintained by the Weather Service office in Wichita (a fairly big city) where they appear to have only a vague notion of where Winfield (a tiny town) actually is, and Winfield is only one of many sites reported by this office, the "predictions" have about the same accuracy as the local TV weather reports for "surrounding areas."

A useful bit of information at this site is the section on "Flood Impacts" a little way down the page, where the "depths" are translated into what areas water will invade.

At the time of our expulsion from the park, it was reported that a crest at 34.2 feet was being predicted, about 4 feet above the level that probably would close US 77 north of Winfield – the only way many people know of for getting in and out of town.

When we arrived back at Wichita where I could access the site, the prediction was still for a crest of 34.2 feet, but the actual current value was about 4 feet below the value predicted for that time, and appeared to be "leveling off." The predicted maximum was dropped to 29.9 feet, but the last current value then was almost 2 feet above what was predicted, and rising fairly rapidly. The latest prediction has changed three times while I've been previewing this post, from 29.4 to 31 plus, and is now 31.6 ft (if I post quickly), close to crossing US 77 highway north of Winfield.

The earlier prediction was that water would recede to "flood stage" (18 feet) by early Monday morning. The current prediction indicates late Monday before that depth is obtained. It will be necessary for the river to fall below "action level" (16 feet – now predicted for Tuesday afternoon) before any natural drainage (including seepage) of most affected park areas can occur, and even with efficient pumping out of low spots some "drying" time – probably one or two days under good conditions – will be needed before "wheels" of any kind can be permitted in most of the camping areas at the park.

Those who found adequate alternate camping spots quite probably should expect to remain there for the duration of the festival. IF THEY HAVE TRANSPORTATION that permits it, "commuting" to the festival may be an option; but several people we know who were "going to the lake" (either one) had "hitched in" and had no transport of their own. I suspect most in that circumstance will simply hold "alternative festivals" in the camps where they've settled, for the most part – assuming a sufficient "picker density" to keep the jam sessions going.

While "commuting" from Wichita would involve only about 100 miles per day, neither Lin nor I are able to walk the distances required to get from day parking to any worthwhile centers of activity, or to remain "on our feet" for extended times. The nutritional qualities of vendor food at the festival are also mostly incompatible with recommendations by our medical advisors, so personal food preparation facilities are needed.

We are awaiting further information, but prospects are not good.

John