And the difference is?

15 years later we should have seen it coming.

in the early 90's it hadn't been seen so often as to be on the radar. But after only 15 more years you would think the victims would have been aware of the risk. Certainly in Britain. I was, when looking at places to live in 2000.

And average house prices running at 5 times average wages is more than a soupcon of a crystal ball. Perhaps Lloyds TSB (UK bank) were looking in it when they were described as lacklustre and fuddy duddy a year ago. Now they have the strength to buy a profligate bank.

I predicted a downturn in the economy here. But I couldn't predict the timing and I thought the downturn would come before the credit squeeze. Which is why I didn't bet on the outcome.

history repeats. It has to, because people aren't listening.