"I believe that in the next 12-24 months we will see CD sales being eclipsed (not just overtaken) by downloads, though the CD format will not disappear altogether for various reasons. If this does come to pass, then we will see truly how wrong that opening line was. But I believe something else will happen too: As recorded music (be it downloaded or whatever) becomes always cheaper and accessible, by contrast the value of live music increases. Where once artists did gigs to promote CD sales, because that was where most of their income came from, we will see people giving away music to attract people to their gigs - and gig fees will strengthen along with the increased value of live music."

you took the words right out of my mouth. The live experience is the one thing that'll remain unique, specifically because it's undownloadable and undigitisable.

The only way I differ from you is that I'm not quite as optimistic as you are regarding gig fees going up. In my experience, living in London where rents are absurd, landlords of pubs charge a fee for the use of their function room that makes profiting from live gigs an uphill struggle. I can't help but think if a landlord notices increased attendances at gigs he might well start upping the rent fee too. But maybe I'm being over-cynical.