I think Iran deserves some respect for orbiting last week. Iran is a much more complicated country than is usually acknowledged in the US media, and its hideous Islamic overlay of a government must inevitably be thrown off by a sophisticated populace which may involve some brinksmanship, but I think the likelihood that they will encourage an attack from Israel by themselves attacking Israel is lower than the other menace I mention below.

CarolC's assertions regarding Israel's plans are ludicrous, if not hysterical. Israel orbited in 1982 and has managed to avoid using her ability to send up satellites as a means to deliver weapons from that time to this.

There are many uses of satellites other than as weapons. Using satellites to aide communications and collect information from the ground is, I think, more conducive to peace than war.

As to the query at the head of this thread, I currently think the answer is: Pakistan. If the Obama administration is going to try to 'win' in Afghanistan, it will require effective penetration of Pashtun lands which cross borders and which even Pakistan has not been able to make much headway in, this will involve Pakistani territory and will challenge the stability of Pakistan. In seven, going on eight years of US involvement in Afghanistan we have not yet succeeded and don't exactly see a clear path to success. So Pakistan will inevitably get involved and disaster is entirely possible. We don't have the ability to take on Iran or Korea at the same time, and in the case of Korea, Japan and China have more to fear than ourselves (not to mention SOUTH Korea).