The large and important states of Mexico and Pakistan are ripe for "a rapid and sudden collapse," says a startling new report on worldwide security threats issued by the U.S. Joint Forces Command. While Mexico destabilization may seem less likely to the public, the report explains, the sustained assaults by drug cartels severely affect government, police and judicial systems. Should Mexico descend into chaos, U.S. homeland security would require immediate response.
Mexico's descent into "failed state" status is of special concern to the U.S.-Mexico border region. The El Paso Times consulted expert Brig. Gen. Jose Piojas, the executive director of the National Center for Border Security and Immigration, who noted the state of flux in Mexican conditions even over the last nine months. In an equally dangerous worst-case scenario, the military report also considered the rapid collapse of Pakistan, which carries with it the threat of nuclear war.
Based in Norfolk VA, the Joint Forces Command is a combat command of the Defense Department, which includes different military service branches, both active and reserves, and functions to transform the military's capabilities. While no one can predict the future, it tries to forecast the future to keep the U.S. prepared for potential emergencies. It's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report puts Pakistan and Mexico on the same level insofar as it assesses global threats and future wars.
U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued a similar evaluation of Mexico's security problems recently. Drug violence and corruption in Mexico are two major factors affecting its stability.
In response, Mexican President Felipe Calderón advised embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico. He met this week with U.S. officials, including President-elect Barack Obama, to advocate for an end to gun running and smuggling of arms from the U.S. into Mexico.

Joint Operating Environment (Report JOE 2008) PDF HERE