The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #124011   Message #2741062
Posted By: Mr Happy
08-Oct-09 - 09:32 AM
Thread Name: BS: UK immigration too high?
Subject: RE: BS: UK immigration too high?
KAoH,

Thanks for your new links, none of which, I note, are from your 1st referent, The Balanced Migration site.

I've examined all of your links & find ambiguities, contradictions & omissions from included info.

I쳌fll not list them all right now, but will do so if necessary.


Here쳌fs a contradiction to your assertion that immigration is the greatest cause of population growth in UK :

Guardian article: [about population increase in UK] http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/oct/23/immigrationandpublicservices.immigration

The Office for National Statistics said the surge was caused by an unprecedented combination of trends - rising fertility, rising life expectancy and rising inward migration.


Here쳌fs a typical example of an omission;

From here

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1172133.pdf

You cited this excerpt:

Net migration

Of the standard population variants, the net migration variants have the largest impact on the household projections, reflecting the size of the variant assumptions.

The high migration variant increases the number of households by 33,000 per year between 2006 and 2031 compared to the principal projection. Under the high migration variant there is an increase of 810,000 households over the 25 year projection period, leading to 28.6 million households in 2031, compared to 27.8 million in the principal projection. Over a third of the additional households are one person households, whilst a further 29 per cent are married couple households.


But you omitted this excerpt


The low migration variant has a slightly smaller impact on household numbers in absolute terms than the high migration variant, resulting in an average of almost 31,000 fewer households per year between 2006 and 2031 relative to the principal projection. Under the low migration variant there is a decrease of 770,000 households over the 25 year projection period, leading to 27.1 million households in 2031, compared to 27.8 million in the principal projection. Just under a third of the reduction in households is one person households and a further third are married couple households.

The zero net migration variant projection assumes zero net migration in the population at all ages. This does not give a pure measure of zero net migration on household formation as the composition of the inward and outward migrants and their propensity to form households will be different, but it illustrates the extent to which the migration assumptions impact on household numbers over and above natural change in the population.

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Seems to me you쳌fre just picking out the bits that suit your hypotheses, rather than presenting the whole picture