The Democrats get lashed

By Michael Gerson | November 4, 2009; 9:19 AM ET


The most pathetic moment of Creigh Deeds's sad campaign came toward the end, with a gauzy commercial invoking last year's Obama campaign, featuring the tag line, "We can do it again." Jon Corzine ran similar ads in the Obama idiom. But the mystical incantations of Barack Obama's name did not perform miracles. It was like watching Democrats try to kindle a campfire in the pouring rain. In the end, they were reduced to mere nostalgia. It was not much of an electoral appeal: "We'll always have Paris."

Today, national Democrats are trying their best to dismiss missing limbs as flesh wounds. It is their job. But they are in deep trouble if they believe their own spin. Compared to 12 months ago, 24 percent more Virginians voted Republican at the top of the ticket. Independents broke decisively against Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey. If this is not a backlash against Democrats, then who, exactly, was being lashed?

These losses, for the most part, don't seem to be a personal repudiation of the president. But they highlight a political fact -- the political fact of the last year. In 2008, Obama won a broad, but not ideological, victory. Voters endorsed his reasoned, moderate tone in a moment of economic crisis, not the sustained, ambitious leftism of his current legislative agenda. Obama has massively overreached. During a summer of town hall discontent, and now in Virginia and New Jersey, citizens have begun to render their verdict.

A few other lessons:

* Both successful Republican candidates were conservative, but not strident or angry. They benefited from an ideological backlash against liberalism precisely because they did not adopt a scary, pitchfork populism. McDonnell, whom I saw on the campaign trail, was uniformly respectful of Obama -- even while reflecting public concerns about deficits, debt and intrusive government. He also offered a positive legislative agenda on transportation and economic growth. The Republican Party clearly needs more genial, upbeat, wonkish conservatives.

* Democrats, once again, discovered the dangers of being the first to escalate the culture war. Deeds went after McDonnell on abortion, women's rights and his ties to the religious right with persistent viciousness. But voters tend to punish candidates, from either party, who raise divisive cultural issues as the centerpieces of their campaigns. It was Deeds, not McDonnell, who ended up looking obsessed by abortion.

* Voters showed admirable maturity -- a refusal to be manipulated -- on a variety of issues beyond the culture war. Corzine's attempt to tie his opponent, Governor-elect Chris Christie, to George W. Bush fell flat. Corzine's classless attempts to call attention to Christie's girth also failed -- not least because Christie is such a good sport. (Christie observed during the campaign: "We got to spur our economy…. Dunkin' Donuts, International House of Pancakes, those people need to work too.") Voters seemed to punish over-the-top negativity.

Last night, a message was sent. Now a question remains: Is Barack Obama capable of listening? All his amazing talent and skill come packaged with arrogance. Shifting his approach in a more centrist direction on health care or any other issue will not come easily. But it needs to come.

By Michael Gerson | November 4, 2009; 9:19 AM ET