Very good post,Hawk,but I disagree that the South should have abolished Slavery prior to seceding. Despite the facts you state as to the Confederacy's motivations, slavery was inextricably linked with its economic survival as an independent entity. There was not enough cheap labor to make the vast plantations profitable without it. And so slavery,I think, was always the unspoken cause. Lincoln was an abolitionist at heart for long before he abolished it: He had straddled the fence out of fear of alienating his political support,and in hope that the rebellion would run its course.

The South did,in my opinion,have a chance to win though. The early victory at Bull Run shook the Union to its core. Many in the South thought the war over when the battle was won. The succeeding string of military defeats suffered by Union forces might have cause another man to hesitate,or declare truce,but Lincoln was a stubborn and dedicated man, and he hung in until Gettysburg and Grant reversed the tide.