Q--you're a Canadian after all.   I bet a nickel that very few Democrats--probably zero--will be defeated in any US ridings. Perhaps you can tell us which ones.







Now back to the originally scheduled program.


Obviously it's dangerous to predict the future. But that doesn't stop us from blithely giving it a try.   And of course all we have to go on is the past.

But, given those caveats, it seems Mudcatters are still doing an awful lot of whistling in the dark--as I've said more than once before.

"....if she were actually to attempt a run...". Would that it were so.

But I'm afraid it's not quite that simple.   As you know, primaries and caucuses are about passion. On the Republican side that has meant, for several elections now, 1) anti-abortion, 2)   anti-homosexuality   and 3) pro gun rights.

Of all the candidates, there is no question who has the anti-abortion vote locked up tight:   the only one who has "walked the walk":   Sarah. In the Iowa caucus this is likely to pay off in spades. Unless she loses this title between now and then. As I said, it's much too soon now to predict anything.

But she is in fact also quite strong on the other 2 "true believer" issues. Who's the poster girl of the NRA? Cheney?

The "quitter" label, much as the notion may comfort Mudcatters now, will likely be ancient history by 2012. And how many anti-abortionists in Iowa and elsewhere do you think care about "quitter" even now?   You'd best pick a low number.

Sarah's audience's in the US are often rapturous. That's not true of any other Republican at this point. And it translates into going the second mile--and then some--for her.

Also, look at the head of steam Obama had coming out of Iowa.   Iowa can make a huge difference.


And who knows how many women are ready for a woman president--even this one?   She already has the Susan B Anthony Society (anti-abortion) eating out of her hand. All she has to do is tack back to the center--sound reasonable on the campaign trail in the general election--note the Mudcatter who already thinks she can sound reasonable. And the war and/or economy issues (especially, as I've observed before, unemployment) to continue to be strongly negative for President Obama in 2012--as, like it or not, they appear to be now.


We can hope that 2012 will not be like 1980--but nobody knows.

It's much too early to write off Sarah--unfortunately.