Logic doesn't always play a great part in these things, but the logical thing to do for the Taliban (which in practice seems to mean all those engaged in fighting against the current regime) is to phase down operations for the next 18 months.   That makes it look like "the surge" is working. Reduced American casualties would be seen as proof of that.

If the pullout doesn't actually start on schedule in July 2011, with the Presidential elections coming up, Spring 2012 would be the time to build up activities again, especially concentrating on trying to kill as many American forces as possible.

The thing is, with Al Qaeda, normal logic doesn't work, because they aren't in it to hold territory, but to provoke the Americans etc into over-stretching themselves. Nothing would suit them better than to see America bogged down in Afghanistan for as long as possible.

But that's not true for "the Taliban". They actually do want the Americans out of Afghanistan and Pakistan.