The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #125469   Message #2782218
Posted By: Little Hawk
06-Dec-09 - 02:03 PM
Thread Name: BS: Afghan War mistake or wise
Subject: RE: BS: Afghan War mistake or wise
Goering's quote is right on the mark. That is exactly how governments persuade their public to support a war.

The American public has been persuaded to support 2 present wars in that fashion.

As for the Taliban, it appears that they have drawn their ranks primarily from the Pashtuns who are also Sunni Muslims, but that does not make all Pashtuns Taliban. The Hazaras and other tribal groups (Tajiks, Uzbeks, etc) associated with the Northern Alliance have long been at odds with the Pashtuns, and the Hazaras are Shia Muslims. The Pashtuns have always been the majority in Afghanistan and have tended to rule the roost most of the time, to the detriment of the less numerous ethnic groups.

A foreign occupation force that is fighting a vigorous Pashtun resistance in Afghanistan and northern Pakistan will naturally ally itself with the various smaller tribal groups who have traditionally been at odds with the Pashtuns. That's standard imperial policy which has always been used by foreign armies which try to occupy a country. You use the disadvantaged local groups against the majority local group that has oppressed them. (The Germans, for instance, got a lot of help in WWII from Ukrainian troops who wanted independence from the Soviets, and if they'd been smart enough to treat the Ukrainian population kindly, they could have recruited many, many more of them to fight Stalin.)

The Pashtuns used to be called "Pathans" in the British Empire days (probably still are called "Pathans" by some people). They were known as very fearsome warriors. I think that in the long run these Pashtuns, whether they are Taliban or otherwise, will succeed in driving out the coalition forces just as the Soviets were driven out before them. Then it will be a fight between the Taliban and the other Pashtun groups to see who gets to run things in central Afghanistan.

There will probably be an interim period while a client government propped up by NATO continues to rule in Kabul for a year or two, just as Najibullah's client government did for the Soviets when they left.

There will be a pretense that victory has been secured by the departing Coalition and that the client government in Kabul can now handle the situation....just like the same pretense that was used in regards to South Vietnam when the USA pulled out and left its client South Vietnamese government in charge there.

Not too long after that the government in Kabul will fall to the Pashtuns, and the charade of supposed Coalition "victory" will end. Then whoever has taken over in Kabul will continue infighting amongst themselves for awhile, and will also continue fighting with the Hazaras, Tajiks, Uzbeks and other people in the Northern Alliance. Will the Taliban win in this fight? Who knows? Somebody will eventually win, but it may not be the Taliban.

Years more suffering, in other words, for the people of Afghanistan.