""Don, in terme of the group size I would guess that lightening strike is a higher risk.""


With respect, that is arrant nonsense. There is in this country a large number of HIV positives of both sexes, and an even larger number who have died since the first instances of the virus.

The fact that the incidence of new cases has been reduced since the eighties is an indication, nay a proof, that it is unsafe sex that is the problem, not, as Ake and GfS would have it, homosexuality, or for that matter heterosexuality.

Your comparison with the lightning strike probability is fatally flawed by the fact that the HIV positive hetero group in the UK is growing rapidly, and heading toward overtaking the gay component.

If 80% of the increase is imported, then 20% is native, and also growing. The probability of lightning strike is a constant (which may admittedly change with climate change, but that is not now predictable).

What does seem very predictable, is that HIV will tend more and more toward an equal opportunities position.

It has been pointed out several times that over 95% of homosexuals are HIV free.

To misquote the words of the old song..... "It ain't who you do, it's the way that you do 'em, that's what gets results.

Don T.