Keith, sorry the second part of your earlier message. The first was about epidemiology in sexual minorities, which I answered.

The second part, about the rising number just of british-acquired heterosexual diagnoses;

We have 1,130 cases in 2008. A 500% increase from 2000.

In 2016, if that continues and all other factors are equal, we have about 6,000 cases every year.

In 2024, if that continues and all other factors are equal, we have over 30,000 cases each year.

But, Keith, you damn well know that in epidemioloy, the rate of new infection is not linear. As the pool of carriers grows, so the rate of transmission increases and the line bends towards exponentiality.

Add in the African-acquired cases now part of the UK pool of carriers and it is reasonable to assert the possibility of a much bigger future hazard than the figure above suggest.

I think that it is a credible assertion of a real potential future outcome based on simple science. Do you dispute that? If you do then say so and say why.

Note, also, that the WHO does not say there cannot or will not be a serious problem for straight people in the developed world, they just say it is unlikely to be on the same scale as in Africa.