Don, you have chosen a bad example with swine flu.
It spread from Mexico to every country on Earth in a couple of weeks!
There was not time to properly establish its mortality. It was not incompetence.
It was known to be a particular threat to young, healthy people and a wrong decision could have been a catastrophe for humanity.

You are obviously right that the future can not yet be predicted.
In any one field, however, some people have a better idea what is going on than others. People with access to all the knowledge that exists and with a lifetime of professional experience working at the highest level in that field.

If you need to know if it will rain tomorow, do you look at the weather forecast or PM Royston?