""If you PMd me, I would look up the met. office 24 hour forecast for your area, and tell you it was the most likely outcome based on the evidence available and expert opinion.
Royston would tell you that rain was not coming, and anyone who said it was, was a rainphobe bigot and a liar.""

Your bad example, mate, because on this thread Royston says the rain is coming, and you are the one ignoring past experience, in favour of predictions of the future which are at best educated guesses.

Don T.