""We have seen that the general population is not susceptable to an epidemic.""

NO! WE HAVE NOT!

All that we have seen is that there are few contacts with carriers, as yet, but as your "integration" scenario takes place there will be many more, and as the numbers of contacts increase, so will the numbers of infections, because the indigenous grouping are not very good at avoiding sexually transmitted diseases, and HIV is a sexually transmitted disease.

This is what Royston has been trying to explain to you for weeks past.

I don't know how to put this more simply so that you might understand straightforward logic.

The fact that something has not happened so far is not proof that it will not happen in the future.

Don T.