Amos, your own post says it. 50%.   They are still there.

Obviously same-sex marriage will not be the #1 issue. That will very likely be the economy. But if the economy has not bounced back very strongly from 9.8% unemployment--and more importantly, people don't feel their personal situation has improved--they will be looking for reasons to "throw the bums out".   Sarah could easily ride that into the White House.

In fact I'd say the recent decision to allow same-sex marriage in DC will give dear Sarah yet another club to beat Washington with.

We'll hear more about "real Americans" and with the DC angle and DC population, there will also be subtle-- or not so subtle-- racism.

And as I've noted earlier, in 2012 if Sarah is the Republican nominee, it will be charisma vs competence.   The President, like all sitting presidents, will be of necessity the candidate of competence.   In contests between competence and charisma who usually wins?

Sometimes I feel like Jeremiah warning people about Sarah.

Don't play into her hands.