Among Ireland's most prominent opinion formers it is now almost a given that catholicism is in its death throes in that country. If so, its writ will soon not run beyond the world's most under-developed third-world communities.

Not quite. Ratzinger presided over the worst haemorrhage of adherents the church has ever seen by refusing to budge over celibacy in Latin America. That was a gift to the Protestant evangelicals.

The last holdout is likely to be Poland. Which is also the place we've heard the least news from over these abuse scandals. Anybody seriously believe Polish priests are any better?