The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #129234   Message #2899050
Posted By: McGrath of Harlow
03-May-10 - 06:49 AM
Thread Name: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
Subject: RE: BS: Can the LibDems Win?
The Guardian has always been a Liberal/ Lib Dem inclined paper, supporting Labour only as being the more viable alternative.

There is no realistic or near-realistic prospect of the Lib Dems getting a Parliamentary majority with the present voting system. Conceivably, if there was a majority for Lib Dems and Labour together, they could form a coalition - and if the Lib Dems had more popular votes, they could demand to be seen as the senior partner in this, even with fewer seats, with their man in Number Ten. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

More likely at present appears to be a Tory minority administration, a few seats short of a majority. In principle that should mean that there would be a majority of MPs elected on a promise of a referendum on electoral reform - but I suspect that, if there is no reward in the shjape of immediate power, Labour would rat on that, as they did after 1997, when their manifesto promised the same thing,

The daftest thing is where you have Lib Dems telling supporters not to vote tactically for Labour in seats where the Lib Dem candidate hasn't a hope. The suggestion is that building up the popular vote is important in itself, regardless of the mathematics of the elected House. In fact, however many votes the Lib Dems get, there won't be electoral reform if the Tories get an overall majority.

The one option nobody seems to be anticipating is Labour and the Tiries getting together to form a Grand Coalation aka a National Government. But I wouldn't rule it out.