What happens when citizens rise against their government?

The government wins and citizens die.

National guard used at Kent State university.

US army used in the whisky tax rebellion.

Offhand I can only think of two relatively recent armed insurrections, (Ireland and the deposition of the Shah of Iran). The government generally has overwhelming firepower (and the disparity daily grows greater) so if it is prepared to use it (that is the key, the preparedness to rule a nation of corpses) the kill ratio will be overwhelmingly one-sided.