"There were far fewer known laws of physics in the past"

Smokey:
Maybe so, but, folks in the future may say the same of us in a few hundred or thousand years, as scientific progress seems to be moving at a faster pace. It wasn't that long ago when Einstien indicated that what is current known in some areas of science was not possible.   

"nevertheless gambling on a rank outsider seems illogical to me"

Smokey:

What seems "illogical" to you obviously is not seen in the same light by many in the world (right or wrong).

So, what is the actual risk ( as you note) of such a gamble to a belief in a God? And, I do not mean following the dogman of an organized religion, which I do see as, in many cases, as having many risks for society.