"And is anyone running a book on the outcome?"

In America? Are you serious? Somebody's even making book on whether someone is making book. Some folks even take seriously a project that lets people "vote" on the favorability, unfavorability, chances of success, etc., of politicians by buying chances, so to speak. In other words, putting their money where their mouths are.

It's like you bet $5 that John Boehner will start crying before noon on any given day, and if he does, you win. But the pollsters look at the betting patterns and interpret them as electoral chances / favorability rating / whatever else pollsters measure.

I can't recall what they call this electoral betting parlor (I propose calling it "The Real Off-Track Betting Parlor" -- with emphasis on the "off-track") but pollsters think it works somehow.

Bob