The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #135054   Message #3078617
Posted By: DMcG
20-Jan-11 - 10:06 AM
Thread Name: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
Subject: RE: BS: Things we can be 100% sure of....
The concept of 'odds', being statistical, doesn't really apply to single observations. Derren Browne did an excellent programme on this - 'The System' - where he appeared to show a single observer that repeatedly beat the odds, and better still explained how and why it worked.

Or as Jeff Wayne (?) had it: The chances of anything coming from Mars/Are a million to one./But still they come."

Or, more seriously, why floods with an annual 1 in a 500 chance of happening still do occur, and sometimes only a few years apart.