The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #135264   Message #3086328
Posted By: Peter K (Fionn)
31-Jan-11 - 09:44 PM
Thread Name: BS: Middle East Unrest
Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
Amid the trivia churned up by Don T's trivial (and misinformed) question, some sound analysis from Steve Shaw. Among other things he has exposed a false assumption behind Keith's point about different values being applied to Egypt and Israel.

In terms of realpolitik Israel and Egypt are allies. Hence the huge anxiety in Israel, as cited by Steve, about what is going on in Egypt. Indeed several of the autocrat leaders of the Arab world (Iran being an obvious exception) are broadly pro-Israel at least to the extent that they favour a middle-east settlement along the lines that the Palestinian leadership (as Wikileaks has confirmed) was prepared to accept - ie a settlement that requires the Palestinians to abandon right-of-return for refugees and some other legitimate claims.

Of such countries Egypt is overwhelmingly the most important, with a population of 82 million and the tenth biggest army in the world. Someone above implied that the present crisis will not be a priority in Washington but in fact it is the admin's No 1 foreign affairs concern.

The scale of Egypt's strategic significance is evidenced in the colossal financial support its regime gets from the US. Q's suggestion that this aid could be redirected from tanks and fighter planes to ploughshares is a complete non-starter. The aid is provided speifically to maintain Egypt's strength in the region. (Not only is its military huge, but it is also highly trained and widely respected.) The Washington lobbyists retained by Egypt to maintain the cashflow (PLM) were not chosen by accident. Other lients include Boeing and BAe Systems.

The signs are promising that the US-Israel axis will soon be confronted by a series of Arab states led not by autocrats who sing to Washington's tune in return for cash, but who reflect the desire of their respective electorates to see Israel's wanton excesses to be urbed.

Even if no other country follows Eqypt into revolution, Israel's position has been significantly weakened, and only a few months after it ruptured relations with its other key ally, Turkey, with the flotilla episode. But there is good reason to hope that events have been set in train that will bring about the biggest reshaping of the world order since the Berlin Wall came down.

On the whole, I'm optimistic for Egypt's future. Its army, having today in effect declared for democracy, would now find it hard rtow back from that and impose a military regime in anything but the short term. And unlike, for instance, Iran, there is no strong fundamentalist trend among the country's predominently muslim population. (The strength of the Islamic Brotherhood has been exaggerated, probably in a ploy by Mubarakto maintain his US backing, and is in any case not extremist.) Also fundamentalism breeds less easily in stable and equitable democracies than under repressive regimes.

But for me the best part of the whole affair is that America's right to chose which of its allies should be democracies, and which should be repressive, torturing police states, is facing its severest challenge.