The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #136410   Message #3116628
Posted By: GUEST,999
18-Mar-11 - 04:12 PM
Thread Name: BS: Is anybody watching Ivory Coast chaos?!?
Subject: RE: BS: Is anybody watching Ivory Coast chaos?!?
By David Lewis

DAKAR | Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:34pm EDT

The death toll from the crisis has risen to more than 435 according to the United Nations, 720 according to the Ouattara camp. Some 12,000 U.N. peacekeepers are urged to do more to protect civilians.

Their mandate allows them to intervene, and they recently secured two Mi-24 helicopter gunships, but they seem reluctant to take robust action against pro-Gbagbo forces.

U.N. officials say part of their problem is that Gbagbo's forces are the main threat to civilians, so protecting the public would sometimes mean firing on the Ivorian military, which risks dragging peacekeepers into active conflict.

HOW WILL THE REGION RESPOND?

The African Union's reconfirmation of Ouattara as the president after weeks of mediation by African presidents was a significant blow to Gbagbo, who had sought to play on divisions across the continent over the U.N.'s rapid backing of his rival.

South Africa, the most significant nation to waver in support for Ouattara, this week confirmed it stood by the AU's decision, in a move that analysts say will make it harder for other nations like Angola to back Gbagbo.

However, regional military intervention, as threatened by West Africa's ECOWAS bloc, still appears a long way off.

Regional powerhouse Nigeria, without which an operation is unlikely, is weeks away from a presidential election while other nations remain reluctant to commit to any such force.

Tacit international backing of anti-Gbagbo forces now officially in Ouattara's army could follow, although such a move would be highly sensitive and, if publicized, could provoke further escalation of nationalistic rhetoric and violence.

WHAT ABOUT THE ECOMOMY AND COCOA EXPORTS?

The crisis has long since paralyzed the world's top grower's cocoa exports, with some 475,000 tonnes of beans sitting in storage due to a ban on shipments by Ouattara and EU sanctions.

The drying up of beans has sent cocoa futures to 30-year highs before prices fell back following Japan's earthquake.

The banking sector is seizing up and the IMF warns of "serious risks" for the West Africa region.

A defaulted $2.3 billion Eurobond is trading at 36 percent of face value, and some analysts think this an attractive entry level on the hope for a resolution.

(Editing by Tim Cocks and Peter Graff)