The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #136495   Message #3128239
Posted By: Teribus
04-Apr-11 - 10:20 AM
Thread Name: BS: Bombing of Tripoli March-April, 2011
Subject: RE: BS: Bombing of Tripoli has just begun
To answer your question Charlie, I see the rebels located in the east of the country's cause no different now from when the UN resolution was passed. The UN resolution is so worded that it makes it very easy for those involved to provide an umbrella of air cover to act and prevent Gaddafi's forces overwhelming the rebels in Benghazi. The fighting by rebel forces in the west of Libya is a little harder to support as they are already fighting inside the city of Misrata.

How I think it should be played for here on in?

1: It was extremely important that France, Qatar and now Italy have officially recognised the rebel ruling council as the "Government of Libya". That semantically overcomes the accusation about interfering in a civil war and bi-lateral agreements can be made between those "Governments".

2: Gaddafi apparently if reports are to be believed is furiously casting round to find a means of ending this. If both sides agree to hold talks (Note: Agree to hold talks - Not actually hold talks) then the UN can order in "boots-on-the-ground" in the form of a "Peacekeeping Force" and that will form a physical barrier between the warring factions. Normally these troops are pretty ineffectual but the force can be tailored to meet the needs of the situation. Ideally this force would be provided by the member states of the Arab League but it must not initially include troops from any "western" nation. Once Gaddafi's forces attack the "Peacekeepers" as I am sure that they would do, then the gloves can come off and other troops can be deployed to help the UN contingent on the ground and take on the aggressors, this basically is Misrata's only hope and it is important as it is one of Gaddafi's two oil terminals.

3: Time is the key, already the rebels are beginning to form a more disciplined fighting force. The rebels are being reinforced in terms of arms and supplies from Egypt, whereas Gaddafi's forces are becoming more and more isolated internationally, unfortunately there are massive stockpiles of arms and munitions inside Libya. Airstrikes under the present "Rules of Engagement" have hit some of these but it must be assumed that Gaddafi's forces still possess sufficient material to engage the rebels. Alternatively Gaddafi's troops hurried offensive may indicate that sufficient of these stores have been destroyed and he must defeat the rebels quickly, or grab as much as the country as possible before he reaches the point where he must agree to talk.

4: Gaddafi's forces have altered their tactics and have abandoned conventional strikes using armour and artillery, they too now roam about in "technicals" and must appear very similar to the rebels they are fighting to observers and from the air. This is where UAV's might come into the picture as they have an extended "loiter time" over the battlefield and can "pick-off" targets at will.

5: Italy relies strongly on oil & gas from Libya, as do Germany and France, so for Europe the only outcome that is in anyway acceptable to them is one in which Gaddafi is removed, because should he survive this "rebellion" then any idea of the rapproachment with the west can be thrown right out of the window.