Lox,
"Keith is convinced that the above hypothesis is true ... but it doesn't reflect his opinion ..."

My opinion is that they are right, and you are wrong.
Why do you care if no hypothesis is needed anyway?

"Because Keith believes that the accused is presumed guilty until proven innocent.
Is that a fair synopsis of your view Keith? "

No, it has no bearing whatsoever!
I believe there is an over-representation because of the overwhelming evidence for it, and the total lack of evidence that others are the majority offenders.
That is rational

NOW PLEASE TELL US WHY YOU DON'T BELIEVE IT!