The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #137660   Message #3150316
Posted By: Ed T
08-May-11 - 09:24 AM
Thread Name: BS: Canuck Politics
Subject: RE: BS: Canuck Politics
Canada has majority Conservative government as they won more electorial seats. There is no doubt to that.

In a three party system, this should not be interpreted that the Conservatives received the support of more citizens in all areas. That could be the case in many areas, but certainly not in many.

The Conservatives are far right leaning, the NDP far left leaning and the Liberals have tended to take a center position (which leans one way or the other, depending on changing circumstances).

Polls near the election vote indicated the NDP were surging ahead of the Block in Quebec, and were the only likely alternative to the governing conservatives (the Conservatives were in the firm polling lead throughout the election, partly due to strong support in the Praries). Many believe this contributed to many voters switching from the liberals, who (with an unpopular leader) were in second place throughout much of the election campaign, to other parties in seat rich Ontario.

One result seems to be that many former left leaning liberal supporters (in Ontario) switched to NDP. Additionally, former right leaning liberal supporters voted Conservative. Both the NDP and Conservative vote increased, and the liberal vote decreased.

The point I was refuting was that this vote change indicated that the liberal party in Ontario is no longer "operative". While this could be the case, I do not believe that this conclusion logically follows from a seat by seat analysis. This perspective does not consider that in many cases the majority voting in many, if not most, seats were not for the Conservatives and the voting switch may have been for "short term" strategic purposes.

I suspect there will be significant analysis made public in the future and it is just too early to determine exactly what was going on in voters minds. Maybe that could never be done, and it may not matter, as political preferences change,and is often cyclic, much like the weather.