The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #26283   Message #316038
Posted By: GUEST,Jim Dixon
11-Oct-00 - 12:12 AM
Thread Name: BS: Mathematical Probability Query
Subject: RE: BS: Mathematical Probability Query
I agree with Marion's answer. Here's a variant of the puzzle which might make it more clear:

Instead of 3 cups, suppose there are 1,000 cups. You choose number 483 at random. Then the house turns over all the cups EXCEPT numbers 483 and 722, showing that all 998 cups are empty. Now, would you keep number 483? Or switch to number 722?