"not controlling it" --yet.

But if she joins the race, they will be there for her.    They're passionate--and they vote. She's been through the crucible of a national campaign--and contrary to Mudcatters' fondest dreams, McCain's loss was due above all else to the financial crisis. Sarah helped him far more than she hurt him--, by providing the passion his campaign conspicuously lacked.

If Sarah jumps in, Bachmann's candidacy implodes, since she is Palin lite.    And she herself will support Palin.

Palin will portray herself as a reform candidate--as she was in Alaska til McCain picked her---for among other things, the traditional campaign job of the VP candidate--hatchetman to trash the opposing presidential candidate.   And she was brilliant at this.

But she's not the caricature Mudcatters desperately want to see.

Obviously this is still just speculation.    But you can't write Sarah off until she herself declines to run.

It's time for Mudcatters to stop gloating about Palin.    It's premature.