Iowa has a split between city and rural; most country folk will vote Republican, more in the cities will vote Democratic.

The Newt espouses some middle-of-the-road conservative values, hence attracts mid-America; Romney suffers from his LDS family background, although most Mormons are middle-of the road conservatives too.

Obama got 54% in Iowa in 2008; I don't think he will do as well this time.

McCain spoke against the agricultural subsidies, which hurt him in Iowa. I don't think the Republican hopefuls are making this mistake this time around.