The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #137528 Message #3355516
Posted By: GUEST,Teribus
25-May-12 - 11:30 AM
Thread Name: BS: obit: Osama Bin Laden ???
Subject: RE: BS: obit: Osama Bin Laden ???
I think bobad that little wheeze of thiers (The Pakistani's that is) is coming to an end. Foreign Aid that their military relied on will dry up.
Everybody looks to this withdrawal from combat operations within Afghanistan by ISAF and erroneously compare that with the Soviet abandonment of Afghanistan in 1991.
What the Taleban realise is that after December 2014 the fighting on the ground in Afghanistan becomes an "All Afghan Affair". The ANSF have now been fighting and gaining experience since 2008. The man in charge after 2014 will more than likely be Abdul Rashid Dostum, after Ahmad Shah Massoud the most competent and capable military commander in Afghanistan. It took 71 days to drive the Taleban from power in 2001 and Dostum did that with less than 25,000 men, aided by less than 1,000 US Specialist Advisers and the combat aircraft from two USN Strike Carriers. From January 2015 Dostum will have over 350,000 men of the ANSF + 20,000 US troops + all the air power he could ask for.
My guess is that Mullah Omar's Taleban, the Haqqani Group and those following Gulbuddin Hekmatyar will forget about Afghanistan and they will focus on grabbing land from Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, the Federal Administered Tribal Areas and parts of Baluchistan to create their Pashtunistan. The Pak military starved of the aid it needs will be a much easier opponent than Dostum.
The Pakistani Government will do some sort of deal with their Taleban and if they then try anything on with regard to harbouring international terrorists or meddling in Afghanistan's affairs then a wall could be built round their Pashtunistan and everyone could use it as the biggest weapons testing, live-firing range in the world.