The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3427478
Posted By: GUEST,Reverend Bayes
28-Oct-12 - 07:14 PM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
To start with, you had a 1/3 chance of picking the car.

Opening the door doesn't change that; it's still 1/3 that you have the car.

So the probability the other door is the car must be 2/3.

If you think this is hard, my friend the Martingale Representation Theorem would like a word.