The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3429067
Posted By: gnu
31-Oct-12 - 06:55 PM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
"Gnu-

I appreciate your frustration, but it really is not a 50/50. Remember, you chose your door from among three! Not two. The odds that you chose correctly will be one in three no matter what Monty does or says. One in three. Period.

Now think about the other doors, and that is where it gets fun. "
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But, in the "second round", I am choosing between TWO doors. NOT THREE! Three doors do not exist after one door is gone. ONLY TWO exist... and ONE must be picked.

Good lord! There are only two doors on the second choice. ONE goat. ONE car. ONE CHOICE. Stick or switch is ONE choice. Two options... ONE CHOICE! ONLY! If you must make a choice between TWO doors, by empirical definition (common sense), ya got a 50/50 chance. The eliminated door has NO impact upon your RANDOM decision in the second round. Your justifications that it does are based on assumptions and conjecture and not upon fact.

You can keep trying to tell me I just don't understand, but... you don't understand that 3 - 1 = 2 and 2/1 = 50 %