The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796 Message #3429232
Posted By: TheSnail
01-Nov-12 - 05:45 AM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Lighter
Does it still work without seeing a goat? (Right now I think it does.)
No it doesn't. The contestant can change his mind as many times as he likes on his first choice. The odds will still say 1/3. He may have changed his mind several times in his head before declaring his choice. Why should changing his mind publicly make any difference?
It is only Monty opening a door to reveal a goat that gives you extra information to recalculate the odds.
I will leave gnu to more patient souls.