The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3429265
Posted By: DMcG
01-Nov-12 - 07:45 AM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
I can flip coins and come up heads that often in one hundered tosses... OR tails... THAT don't mean shit. What do you people not understand?


Apologies for not commenting on this one earlier. Actually, it means a great deal and it is a branch of testing scientific papers that is being used more and more. Without going into too much detail you set up two hypotheses 'this is a fair coin' and 'some skullduggery is going on'. When you have tossed your hundred heads it is indeed possible it is sheer chance, but it is far more likely you are using a double-headed coin, or using various tricks that distort the result. There has been a major kerfuffle in psychology recently which used exactly this sort of technique to detect certain papers contained fraudulent data.