The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796 Message #3431657
Posted By: GUEST,Jack Sprocket
06-Nov-12 - 02:02 AM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
g = goat
c = car
x = open door
W = win without change
w = win with change
L = lose without change
l = lose with change.
C = contestant
P = presenter.
Three possibilities (123): ggc gcg cgg
ggc:
C chooses 1
P chooses 2 - gxc (forced choice)
(i) C sticks - L
(ii) C twists - w
C chooses 2
P chooses 2 - xgc (forced choice)
(i) C sticks - L
(ii) C twists - w
C chooses 3
(a) P chooses 1
(i) C sticks - W
(ii) C twists - l
(b) P chooses 2
(i) C sticks - W
(ii) C twists - l
Total outcomes for ggc: 8
Total wins if Stick (W): 2
Total wins if Twist (w): 2
C must either Stick or Twist so the probability of win is 25%.
Repeat for the other two combinations, merely shifting the situation where P has a choice to one of the other positions.
Which is in line with what you might intuit: if the door C chooses is opened at stage 1, the probability would be 1/3. Needing to get two guesses in a row right must reduce the probability.
Now repeat the exercise where all 8 combinations of g and c are permitted.