Well, Lighter you are getting into really difficult areas there, because you are moving out of the realm of mathematics and into psychology, judgement and ad-hoc generalisations. It is indeed interesting but includes such questions as why anyone ever buys a lottery ticket, when the odds of them winning are so minute, and how this compares to buying a raffle ticket for your fok club or favourite charity, when winning is pretty much irrelevant to your motivation. Complex and intriging but nothing to do with Monty, except insofar as that is an example