The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #147796   Message #3433338
Posted By: DMcG
08-Nov-12 - 06:53 PM
Thread Name: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Subject: RE: BS: Monty Hall Problem
Let me flesh that out with a different example. In dealing with probability outside mathematical notation, it is very common to omit the information bit. People will say that the odds of heads or tails is 50:50. In fact, that's wrong. What you need to say is (statement:) the odds are 50:50 (information:) if you are using a fair coin. Without the fair coin information, the odds are not clear. Suppose I show you a coin and, having told you it is fair, I then tell you the last 100 tosses were all heads. Then, if you accept my claim of fiarness the odds remain at 50:50. Now suppose I had told you I had doubts about the fairness of the coin and the last 100 were all heads. Then is is reasonable for you to also have doubts that the odds are truly 50:50 and you would be well advised to bet the 101st head turns up.