At any rate, I think Monte Hall would get a kick if he knew we have devoted so much bandwidth discussing his long ago game

I'm sure you are right. But as I see it, the issue isn't really the game, and has, I suppose, been what Lighter has been concerned about for the last third of the thread or so. It is how it comes about that we as a species are so poor when it comes to dealing with probabilities and since the whole of life is highly dependant on making such judgements to what extent we can improve of this. Now, it is of course possible in some circumstances to go away and think about it for a week and carry out formal analyses. But in most cases we have a second or two to make up our mind. Do we think anything can be done to improve our decision making in such areas? My guess, is that the only way is to become aware how fallible we are in such circumstances and try to hold our judgement very lightly, being prepared to drop them when we have time to think things through.

I suspect gnu is either teasing us or, despite his protestations otherwise, finds it difficult to change from his original opinion. For example, gnu has not responded to the post from BK Lick @ 01 Nov 12 - 04:17 AM as far as I can tell. That in its turn was a variation of Jim Dixon's post of 29 Oct 12 - 10:53 AM which also seems to have been overlooked.