how about the cardinal from the phillipines, a possible outsider at 25 to one, generally speaking the bookies have it right and one need look no further than the first 3 or 4 in the betting.
scola turkson oulet, bertone, now paddy power are offering "If the cardinals elect the First Black Pope, we will refund all losing bets on the Next Pope market", Applies to single outright bets placed before 12.00pm Monday 18th Feb.

Max Refund e/£25 per customer/bet.

Applies to the next permanently appointed Pope after Benedict XVI

Only applies in the case of Peter Turkson, Francis Arinze and Wilfred Napier.

Refund applies to the Next Pope Outright market only, does not apply to any other related markets.

Paddy Power betting rules apply and Paddy Power s decision is final,         
does that meanthey think it will be turkson?