The U.S. defense analysts quoted have "moderate confidence" that Kim has a bomb he can mount on a missile, and if he does have one it will "probably" be unreliable.

Other intelligence estimates are that Kim "probably" doesn't yet have the right kind of bomb and/or missile.

Net result: "Maybe he does, and maybe he doesn't. Can't really be sure. It'd be better if he didn't.... But if he does....Huh!"

Your high-tech intel tax dollars at work.