The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #155459   Message #3658981
Posted By: Teribus
10-Sep-14 - 07:30 AM
Thread Name: BS: scottish independence
Subject: RE: BS: scottish independence
1: "If, as is relentlessly asserted by commentators opposed to independence, Scotland is a net drain upon the UK, then removing that sinkhole should improve the financial outlook for the remaining United Kingdom (rUK)."

Classic example of SNP Spin there Scabby. So far I have not heard one single proponent of the Better Together side state that. What they have said and stated quite correctly is that the SNP's sums just simply do not add up - But no matter Scabby once we've all voted YES and are independent then we will get to pick up the tab for an independent Scotland and that is when we will all find out that we cannot pay for it unless services, including the NHS, and benefits will have to be cut, and that taxes will have to be raised right across the board (Remembering that the rich can always afford to move and that those left will have to pick up the slack).

2: "If the rUK is obliged by the newly-formed Scottish government to proceed with plans to remove nuclear weapons from the base(s) in Scotland, then there are concerns over the rUK's ability to find suitable alternative locations elsewhere, with the possibility that rUK may have to give up its nuclear capability. (I say "if" because many opponents of independence are convinced that Alex Salmond is bluffing in his assertion that nuclear missiles must go, and think he's using it only as a negotiating counter.)

Well Scabby as the removal of Trident from Scotland is only an SNP condition (There never has been a referendum on that issue in Scotland) we will have to wait and see what the first elected Scottish Government will do. All comes down to this tiny point about Scotland shouldering it's share of the National Debt. Apparently Jowly has said Scotland will not honour this obligation so there will be no shared assets. Property owned in Scotland, even the newly independent Scotland, will remain the property of the Government of the United Kingdom. Having reneged on their share of the UK's National Debt that will send a very bad signal to international lenders and will cost the new Scottish Government dearly - How many millions did Swinney predict that the newly independent Scottish Government would have to borrow each year for the first five years of independence?

So Faslane, Coulport, Dreghorn Barracks, Lossiemouth, Leuchars, etc, etc, all existing MoD property will remain MoD property and all the buildings currently owned by other UK Government Departments will still be owned by the UK Government unless of course the newly independent Scottish Government just seizes them. That too would send a very bad signal to any foreign investor wishing to invest in Scotland.

Relocation of Trident South Scabby? That does not pose any intractable problem, I dare say that prospective sites would welcome the employment it would create, just as parts of a newly independent Scotland would mourn the loss of it. The UK will retain it's nuclear deterrent irrespective of the result of the referendum.

3: On market confidence in the UK's borrowing I think they base that on GDP and ratio of GDP:Debt. Now just to put things into perspective Scotland including it's oil accounts for slightly less than 10% of the UK's GDP while the City of London alone contributes 22%, while the UK might momentarily have to sustain that 10% loss the 58.3 million people and their economy will soon recover, while Scotland could be faced with losing 80% of its trade should the UK decide to look elsewhere, now that would pose some fairly steep challenges particularly for a Government that has no control whatsoever of the exchange, and interest rates of the currency it has unilaterally decided to use without benefit of political or financial union, or guaranteed "lender of last resort".

4: On psychological and political fallout it would not only be in the UK that that would have to be assessed. But at least between the Referendum next week and Scotland's date for Independence (24th March 2016) there will be a General Election in which the separation negotiations will feature large. This General Election will take place in May 2015 and if Labour win there will then be another General election on or shortly after the 24th March 2016 when all the Scottish Westminster MPs disappear and Labour lose their majority in the House of Commons. No Party in the 2015 election will dare to be seen as being overly generous to the newly independent Scots, as that would be political suicide. I think that with the flight of capital, the abandonment of Scotland's financial and banking sectors and the loss of jobs that the Northern part of the UK might well benefit greatly.

But one thing on which you are very much in error on is your statement:

" Maybe it will make no difference at all."

Irrespective of the result of the Referendum on the 18th September this year things will never be the same in the British Isles ever again. As for your:

"I could not begin to predict it."

Then maybe, just maybe, every single person intending to vote YES should have given that a bit of thought - you should never tear anything down before you know for certain that what you will put back in its place is something that will stand and something that will be better - the SNP has signally failed to do that with shouts of "scaremonger", but have no fear Scabby all those "scare stories" and predictions will come home to roost, each and every one of them with huge costs, costs that will have to be borne by 5.3 million Scots and them alone. They say that the result of the Referendum will be close and that would be the worst possible outcome even for a YES result as South of your border there will be a United Kingdom while North of their border in Scotland will be a land bitterly divided facing decades of forced austerity simply because your "leaders" preferred to lie to the electorate of Scotland and to the Scottish people, instead of being open and honest and doing their homework and getting their sums right.

By the way when do you think the Shetlanders will demand their referendum? What will Jowly's excuses be for denying them it? My guess will be it will be before 24th March 2016.